The Bitcoin Bull Cycle is Steadily Approaching According to Tell-tale Signs

The BTC environment has been dealing with some pretty serious fluctuations throughout 2024, but it finally seems like the king of crypto is finally out of the woods. Right now, many investors have started to Purchase Bitcoin in order to consolidate their portfolios and ensure the continuity of their gains. Making transactions during these times can be quite challenging, as volatility and fluctuations become more intense, which is why a comprehensive game plan based on research and discipline is a must. Investors are optimistic about Bitcoin and expect it to keep on growing in the upcoming months.

Overvalued

Recent metrics show that the market cannot be considered overvalued given its current levels and that the price action is developing relatively steadily, being free of anomalies such as very sharp jumps that are then followed by steep corrections. Such events used to be quite common in the Bitcoin market, and the fact that their incidence is decreasing can only indicate that the market is becoming more consolidated, stronger, and mature. The price has yet to return to the all-time high it recorded in March, but the figures indicate that the bull market remains solid. There are no signs of an incoming correction anytime soon, meaning that there’s plenty of time left for investors who want to consolidate their holdings.

One of the metrics that analysts focused on was the 30-day MA MVRV Z-score surges. The MVRV Z-score is a chart that is specific to Bitcoin that makes use of blockchain analysis in order to identify the time frames during which Bitcoin is either over or undervalued compared to its “fair value”. When an asset is overvalued, it is typically a very clear indicator that a price correction is on its way and that investors must adjust their strategies accordingly. In March 2021, this score went above five before achieving a new high, only to be followed by a 45% decline only a month later.

Bullish Tendency

At the moment, it is pretty difficult to establish what the next move will be in the Bitcoin market, as the coin is currently struggling to hold onto the $60K level. This area has been considered pivotal by investors recently, and since the second half of July, Bitcoin has been in a 40% range, moving between $49,800 and the all-time high of 2021, $69,000. Since then, prices have mostly been located in the $50K area and stagnated. Many investors prefer this to the losses and corrections, but there are also some who feel like this is a lost opportunity for gains and development.

January started off on a positive note for Bitcoin, with 4-hour charts showing the king of crypto making a decisive move towards the $109K level, before retracting. The attempts to move further continue as BTC is exhibiting stronger performance than ever before and has rallied significantly ever since November.

Some traders see the current market as proof of Bitcoin’s extended consolidation and the fact that it is becoming a more mature asset. This is a boring phase for most investors, but it isn’t unusual for it to take place both before and after the halving. The only difference this time is that the arrival of the ETFs during the first quarter of the year gave the environment a significant boost, even allowing Bitcoin to beat its previous records and reach a new all-time high in March. This isn’t something that has happened before, but it is also noteworthy to remember that the gains didn’t last long and dissipated almost as quickly as they appeared.

Summer Illiquidity

The summer of 2024 was under the influence of considerable illiquidity, a market trend that will most likely remain in place until the end of September. However, the arrival of lower interest rates has the potential to bring a more practical bullish tendency during Q1 of 2025. Many investors hoped that Bitcoin would close August in the green, with a monthly price exceeding $64,300. But compared to the current prices, that would mean a rally of around 10%, something which many investors simply do not see as realistic.

While some key levels have been reclaimed, a clear sign of an impending bullish breakthrough, the Bitcoin market remains relatively illiquid, and low-volume volatility continues to be an issue. The fact that the downswing continues is an indication of spot-long positions and unwinding. As a result, according to recent data, BTC remains 12% lower on the monthly charts. Given this rather strong trend, most researchers believe that September will continue in the same vein and will bring even further downward volatility.

The resistance level at $63,900 remains firmly in place, and with new price lows appearing to be very much a reality, it will become even more challenging to surpass it. Some analysts consider the current price level to be nothing more than a reflection of historical market transactions. In the past, the average returns Bitcoin recovered in September were -4.78%, a negative value, and this has been the case since 2013. At this point, this is a price movement endeavor that most investors consider to be a fact.

2025

2025 has only just begun, but most investors are optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects during this year. Many believe that 2025 could potentially be one of the best years in BTC’s history. Right now, most are optimistic that 2025 will be a positive one and that prices will continue growing and developing. A period of decreased interest rates has the potential to bring considerable gains for BTC. According to this scenario, the bull market is doing nothing other than taking a break before growth returns stronger than ever during the beginning of 2025. There are some traders who are convinced price evolution will remain constant later as well.

Bitcoin is doing much better than it used to, being considerably more robust and more resilient, but it still needs more time before it reaches its full potential. If you’re an investor, make sure you don’t underestimate the importance of a solid strategy since it is the only thing that can keep your portfolio safe.